We are approaching the year end and soon the experts will start coming out with their predictions for next year. As there is a lot of competition to be the first one, I decided to get ahead in the line by kicking it off in November itself
So here goes
- Barring any macro-economic shocks and if sensex earnings exceed 15%, the stock market should be up next year. If however we have a crisis in Europe or we get an oil shock then the index could even touch 10000 levels.
- Gold could be up by 10%, if we get a major recession in US due to the fiscal cliff and it could surprise us on the upside if it coincides with the further instability in Greece and Spain. Over the long term, the macro-economic and supply-demand drivers point to a continued increase in gold prices.
- Capital good stocks in India could surprise on the upside if the current momentum on the reforms continue. One needs to focus on high quality names in the sector
- The consumption story continues to play out and high quality names should outperform the market in 2013, barring any sudden depreciation of the rupee. Demand from consumption centers, such as India and China largely seem to be on a firm footing
- The real estate market will continue to face headwinds of high interest rates in the initial part of the year, but if RBI starts cutting rates in the second half, we could see higher activity in certain pockets of the market
- Rohit Chauhan will become the smartest and richest investor in the Indian stock markets. President Obama and other world leaders will seek his counsel on how to fix the developed economies 🙂
Did I get you? Do you realize how absurd these predictions are?
There is a consistent pattern in all these predictions. They are not predicting anything and are simply stating that a market will go up if all conditions are right, otherwise it will go down (if the conditions go bad). This is similar to what you would hear from an astrologer if you were to ask about your future from him.
One more point – I did not make up all these predictions. I just googled some sites and cut and paste what I found for 2012 (yes for the current year !!).
If you really feel the urge to get some predictions for 2013 on the cheap, please email me and send me 10 Rs. I know a guy on the street with a parrot, who for 10 bucks , will ask his bird to pick a card and will use the card to tell you the future. The parrot is a better fortune teller (50% accuracy), is crisp and short (no beating round the bush) and much cheaper.