I recently got asked – whats up rohit ? why no new ideas on the blog ? on a vacation ?

Short reply – not on vacation and still searching.

During the Oct – April 2009 period it was easy. One could throw darts and pick stock which were cheap. Ofcourse, what was needed was courage at that point. A lot of people wanted to wait till the fog of uncertainity cleared up. Well, the fog supposedly has cleared up and the valuations reflect that and more. We have moved from a 10 ft visibility in March 2009 to 100 Km visibility in a short span of 6 months !! amazing change in sentiment.

Not much value
I have been looking for new ideas, but most are not attractive enough or are fairly valued. I personally don’t do top down, sector based or any other mumbo jumbo type investing. I have a brute force method of looking for stocks – run various filters based on PE, debt equity and other factors manually on a list of stock. This would give me a list 5-10 stocks which I analyse in further details (read annual report) and come up with 2-3 stocks. In the end I may pull the trigger on 1-2 stocks. So it is all sweat and labor. For more details see here.

I am able to find 2-3 ideas a year and that works for me. I am quite amazed at some people who are able to post an idea a week.

In a minority
I have been talking to some friends and most are now planning to get into the market. Most of them feel left out and want to enter now and ride the upswing as much as they can.

I may be wrong here and we may at the cusp of major bull market where the index will go from 16K to 25K in the next 6 months, but this is a game I have not yet learnt. I would prefer to do nothing if I cannot find something smart to do.

In a nutshell, I am not finding too much value out there. Ofcourse my opinion is in the minority, where you have others recommending stock such as maruti suzuki when I am exiting this position.

3 Comments

  1. anurag says:

    Dear Sir,

    If you have analysed Orient Paper Mills Ltd,Then pls share your views on the same.

    regards
    Anurag Awasthi

  2. anurag says:

    and One more thing I forgot to mention is that I really appreciate your above views,and cautioned myself not to go venturing into unknown zone for the moment.

  3. admin says:

    Hi anurag
    I have not analysed orient paper mills in the past and hence really dont have much idea about it

    rgds
    rohit

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