We are approaching the year end and soon the experts will start coming out with their predictions for next year. As there is a lot of competition to be the first one, I decided to get ahead in the line by kicking it off in November itself

So here goes

  1. Barring any macro-economic shocks and if sensex earnings exceed 15%, the stock market should be up next year. If however we have a crisis in Europe or we get an oil shock then the index could even touch 10000 levels.
  2. Gold could be up by 10%, if we get a major recession in US due to the fiscal cliff and it could surprise us on the upside if it coincides with the further instability in Greece and Spain. Over the long term, the macro-economic and supply-demand drivers point to a continued increase in gold prices.
  3. Capital good stocks in India could surprise on the upside if the current momentum on the reforms continue. One needs to focus on high quality names in the sector
  4. The consumption story continues to play out and high quality names should outperform the market in 2013, barring any sudden depreciation of the rupee. Demand from consumption centers, such as India and China largely seem to be on a firm footing
  5. The real estate market will continue to face headwinds of high interest rates in the initial part of the year, but if  RBI starts cutting rates in the second half, we could see higher activity in certain pockets of the market
  6. Rohit Chauhan will become the smartest and richest investor in the Indian stock markets.  President Obama and other world leaders will seek his counsel on how to fix the developed economies 🙂

Did I get you? Do you realize how absurd these predictions are?

There is a consistent pattern in all these predictions. They are not predicting anything and are simply stating that a market will go up if all conditions are right, otherwise it will go down (if the conditions go bad). This is similar to what you would hear from an astrologer if you were to ask about your future from him.

One more point – I did not make up all these predictions. I just googled some sites and cut and paste what I found for 2012 (yes for the current year !!).

If you really feel the urge to get some predictions for 2013 on the cheap, please email me and send me 10 Rs. I know a guy on the street with a parrot, who for 10 bucks , will ask his bird to pick a card and will use the card to tell you the future. The parrot is a better fortune teller (50% accuracy), is crisp and short (no beating round the bush) and much cheaper.

 
 

About

IL&FS investment managers is a private equity/ fund management company promoted by ILFS (50.5% ownership). The company is in the business of raising funds from investors (institutional – both in India and abroad) in the form of individual fund offerings.

These funds have their individual mandates such private equity investments, infrastructure or real estate type investments. The company is responsible for investing the funds, managing the risks of individual investments and then finally working out exits from these investments. The company has been fairly successfull in managing the funds, generating 20%+ returns on most of the funds in the past for the fund investors.

The main source of revenue for the company is the fixed 2% management fee on these funds and an override on the returns over a threshold (a percentage of the gains made, above a threshold)

Financials

The company has delivered a 35% growth per annum over the last 8 years. The company earned around 225 Crs in 2012.

The company has grown the net profits at around 40% over the same period and made around 74 Crs in 2012. The main cost for the company is compensation for the employees and overhead expenses incurred on launching and operating the funds. The company has been able to maintain net margins in excess of 30% in the last 10 years.

Finally, the company has been able to maintain a high ROE of 30%+ and if one excludes the excess cash on the balance sheet, the ROE would be in excess of 50%.

Positives

The business requires minimal incremental capital to grow. The main assets of the company are the brand, its relationships with clients and the skills/knowledge of its employees.

The company needs very little capital to grow (some extra office space and maybe a few computers) and hence the entire profit is truly free cash flow. The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio in the past (over 50%) and used the excess capital to acquire a new fund (saffron) in 2010.

The company has a long operating history in raising and investing funds in various opportunities in India with good results (returns in excess of 20%). As a result the company has a good reputation with current and potential investors which should help the company raise additional funds from the clients in the future.

Risks

The company operates in a very competitive environment with minimal entry barriers. The company now faces stiff competition from a large number of Indian and international competitors such as hedge funds and other private equity funds. This has resulted in higher competition for raising India specific funds and investing the same in attractive opportunities (businesses) in India. This could result in lower returns for the fund investors and hence lower income for the company in the future.

The slowdown in the investment cycle, recent actions by the government such as the GAAR fiasco and other global macro-economic factors have made it difficult for the company to raise new funds. In addition the exit timelines for the fund investments have increased due to weak stock markets, resulting in lower returns for the fund investors. All this has impacted the revenue of the company which depends on the volume of funds managed (AUM) and the carry (excess returns over a threshold). It is unlikely that the investment cycle will turn around quickly, due to which the company may face a longer period of low revenue growth or even de-growth over the next few quarters.

Management quality checklist

Management compensation: fairly high at 25% of revenue. However this kind of compensation is typical of the industry.

Capital allocation record: extremely good. The company has maintained a very high dividend payout ratio and has indicated that they will dividend out almost the entire profits to the shareholders.

Shareholder communication: Quite good. The company provides adequate details of the business in its annual reports and conducts quarterly conference calls to keep the shareholders updated on progress.

Accounting practice: conservative

Conflict of interest: none

Valuation

The company is currently selling at a PE of around 7 which is on the lower side of the past PE range of the company (6-23). A company earning an ROE of around 30% and with a 15%+ growth prospects can easily support a PE of 15 or more. The company thus appears undervalued by most objective measures.

Conclusion

The company has performed extremely well in the past and has rewarded the shareholders well. The period from 2003-2008 was a bull market for private equity and stock markets resulting in high returns for the company’s funds. This resulted in good profits and high growth for the company.

The markets have slowed down considerably since the 2008 financial crisis and the Indian government has made it worse in the last few years. As a result, the company has struggled to raise new funds which is needed to drive the topline and profits for the company. It is likely that the company will take a few more quarters before it can raise and deploy new funds and a result the topline and profits could stagnate for some time.

The long term prospects of the company are good, though it will take time for the company to start growing again. This would test the patience of most investors.

Disclosure: No position in the stock as of writing this post

Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please read disclaimer

 
 

If one wants to be rich, one should learn how to invest on your own…right ? that way you can compound your capital and retire rich ! Isnt that obvious ?

If I am asking this question, you can guess I don’t believe it to be the case.

I get asked this question in different shapes and forms and a typical email goes like this

Rohit – I am currently X years old and want to become financially independent in the next 10 years so that I can purse XYZ (insert a dream here). Can you suggest how to become a better investor so that I can have enough money in a decade to pursue my dream ?

What does it take to be an active investor ?

It takes a  few hours a week for a year or so to become financially literate, which involves having a reasonable understanding of various investment options such as fixed deposits, mutual funds, stocks, and insurance etc. Once you reach this level of understanding, you can with a moderate amount of effort,  identify a mix of assets which will help you earn around 12-14% return per annum (depending on the mix of debt and equity)

In effect, you can spend a few hours a month and earn 12-14% on your assets over the long term. We can call this a baseline level  of effort.

Now lets assume that you are not satisfied with the above returns and would not settle for anything less than 20%+ levels (around 10 times in the 10 years). If you wish to achieve these level of returns, then you  need to invest atleast 15+ hours a week on learning various aspects of investing and in finding new opportunities on a regular basis.

What is the return on time in case of active investing?

So what do I mean by the term – Return on time ? Let me illustrate with an example.

Let’s look at a typical case of a young professional who has a full time job. Let’s assume the following

Annual salary in year 1 = 10 lacs

Annual savings  in year 1 = 5 lacs (I know this is too high, but we are considering an optimistic scenario)

Salary increases each year by 10% and so does the savings. This individual has two options for his/ her savings. They can be financially literate and spend minimal time (a few hours a month) and earn around 12-14% per annum or spend 15 hrs or more on investing and earn a much higher return.

Lets also assume the individual works around 40 hrs each week in his / her job  (would be higher in reality)

So whats does the return on time (money earned per hour spent) look like for the person in terms of active investing ?

Lets look at the table below

I have plotted the savings, the extra returns earned by putting in  extra hours each week (15 hrs per week) and the per hour return

A few things standout,

In the initial years when one has a small level of savings and is just starting out, the per hour ‘salary’ from investing  is way below the per hour salary from a job. The higher your education or skill, the larger the gap.

This is the best case scenario. The above picture worsens if one gets hit by a bear (a certainity in a 10 year period). The last column shows that this ratio becomes favorable only after  8-9 years

Implications of the analysis

The above analysis though silly,  lead us to a fairly important conclusion. If the only reason you want to become an active investor is to make more money, then it is not a very smart way to do it.

For starters, all the time spent in the initial years will appear to be a complete waste of time. Most of the people soon realize that the extra returns are really not worth the time.

In addition, if you start late in a bull cycle (as most individuals do), the quick and easy returns are soon lost in the subsequent bear market. In most cases, such individuals throw in the towel and move on to other pursuits in life.

Finally, the additional hours spent on investing means that one does not have time for any other pursuits like having girlfriends or other hobbies  at the prime time of their life (early to late 20s).

My personal story

The above table and discussion is not theoretical. I have personally lived it for the last 15 years. I started investing in the late 90s (around 1997). I think I was financially literate by around 1998 and around that time came across the book – The warren buffett way. I read about this person who had become the second richest person by investing in stocks and was completely mesmerized by it.

I read the biography of warren buffett (Making of an American capitalist) and his letter to sharehlolders and anything else I could find about him. It was in late 1999 , early 2000 that I finally turned to active investing.

As you can see, my timing was perfect. I made some money for around 3-4 months of 2000 and then lost all the gains by the end of year – some on paper and some of it was a permanent loss as I had put money in IT/ Internet oriented mutual funds (don’t ask what I was thinking).

The years from 2000-2003 was one long bear market, where the market slowly went down from 4000 levels to around 3000 in a period of three years. If I put the numbers in the earlier table, my ‘salary’ from investing was negative, whereas I was making a good income from my full time job.

Any rational person after three year of losing money, would have given up investing and move onto something else in life. I did not even think of it as I was extremely passionate about it and inspite of mediocre absolute returns, I was still beating the market by a large margin.

The market turned in mid 2003 and as it took off for the next 5 years, so did my portfolio.

Better way to do well

As you can see from my personal experience and from the analysis, that investing is definitely not a quick or easy way to becoming rich.

Let me suggest an alternative – If you are really passionate about something or good at your full time job, focus on it and get better at it. You will have fun doing it and over a decade you will make a decent amount of money out of it. Invest the money saved, sensibly by becoming financially literate and you will realize that not only is your life more pleasant , but  that you also have enough tucked away for a rainy day.

I know this is not the conventional wisdom and we have a cottage industry of people  encouraging others to invest on their own. I would rather follow my interest/ passions and become good at it (the money usually follows then), than do something just for the sake of a little extra money.

In case you wondering about the life I had outside work and investing early on …I am not going to disclose than on my blog and get in trouble with my wife 🙂